The evolution of the Islamic State (VIDEO)

The evolution of the Islamic State (VIDEO)


The evolution of the Islamic State (VIDEO)

Posted: 16 Dec 2014 05:00 PM PST

NEW YORK, Dec 17 — Key points in the terror group's rapid growth and the slowing of its advance as it faces international airstrikes and local resistance.—New York Times

This still image from a video recording posted on the Internet on July 5, 2014 shows a man purported to be the reclusive leader of the militant Islamic State Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. — Reuters picThis still image from a video recording posted on the Internet on July 5, 2014 shows a man purported to be the reclusive leader of the militant Islamic State Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. — Reuters pic

NYT Video: The rise and rapid evolution of ISIS

Posted: 16 Dec 2014 04:57 PM PST

Duration: 5:21, Published 17 Dec 2014

Key points in the terror group's rapid growth and the slowing of its advance as it faces international airstrikes and local resistance.—New York Times

Bloomberg Video: Huawei revs up image to appeal to the younger generation

Posted: 16 Dec 2014 04:55 PM PST

Duration: 3:20, Published 17 Dec 2014

Huawei wants to be Number One in China, and is targeting the younger generation with a new line of smart-phones. They're called the Honour Six Plus. Bloomberg's Christine Hah takes a look at Huawei's new strategy.—Bloomberg

IOC reforms possibly mean future Southeast Asian Olympics

Posted: 16 Dec 2014 04:55 PM PST

International Olympic Commitee (IOC) president Jacques Rogge of Belgium laughs during a news conference in Buenos Aires. — Reuters picInternational Olympic Commitee (IOC) president Jacques Rogge of Belgium laughs during a news conference in Buenos Aires. — Reuters picSINGAPORE, Dec 17 — Indonesia are optimistic about bringing the Olympics to Southeast Asia in collaboration with one of their neighbours after the International Olympic Committee's (IOC) revamp of the bidding and hosting processes.

Earlier this month, IOC members voted to allow multiple cities and countries to host events at future Games, one of a number of sweeping reforms to the Olympic movement brought by President Thomas Bach.

Changes were also approved to reduce costs for potential bidders, with prospective candidates allowed to discuss plans with the IOC before formally launching a bid after a troublesome 2022 Olympic race led to six runners withdrawing citing finances.

"We strongly support these proposals and are very optimistic about hosting the Olympics in ASEAN in the future," Indonesia's Olympic Committee president Rita Subowo told Singapore's Straits Times newspaper yesterday.

"All the potential is there if we can overcome certain limitations.

"The IOC has very high standards and it's hard to built 20 plus world-class facilities from scratch. Hence, having it spread across two countries makes it more realistic in terms of costs."

Japan, South Korea and China are the only Asian nations to host the Summer or Winter Olympics, but the Qatari capital of Doha has bid for the last two Summer Games and declared its intention to try again for 2024.

That is the next opportunity for a Southeast Asian bid although whether the IOC would be willing to go back to Asia again after South Korea's Pyeongchang host the 2018 Winter Games and Tokyo the 2020 Summer Olympics seems unlikely.

Thai IOC member Nat Indrapana saw other issues.

"Co-hosting in principle is a good idea but the practical implementation of this proposal also creates a lot of other problems," he told the paper.

"With two countries involved, who gets what can become an issue."

Whether the IOC would trust any of the 11 Southeast Asian nations to work together or individually is an issue.

Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam and Indonesia came together to host the 2007 Asian Cup soccer tournament in Southeast Asia, but then Asian Football Confederation President Mohammed bin Hammam said after it was a mistake to do so.

Vietnam are unlikely to be involved in an Olympic bid after they pulled out of hosting the 2019 Asian Games earlier this year citing costs, with Indonesia stepping in to take over.

Singapore hosted the inaugural Youth Olympics in 2010 and has just opened a US$1 billion Sports Hub but would rely on the much larger Indonesia, Thailand or Malaysia to host the bulk of the sports. — Reuters

Russia’s growing problems are everyone’s problems — Megan McArdle

Posted: 16 Dec 2014 04:44 PM PST

DECEMBER 17 — "Cyprus with nukes." That's how someone, maybe me, referred to Russia in an IM conversation this morning. It's not really a fair comparison; Russia is a vast country loaded with natural resources, not a tiny island banking haven. But it does express a very real fear: that the world is about to experience a major financial crisis in a country that seems to deal with its internal troubles by slicing off bits of neighbouring countries.

The ruble is plunging, for reasons that have roots in the falling price of oil. Yet the trouble now runs deeper than that, so the ruble's problems will continue even when the price of oil recovers a bit. As our own Leonid Bershidsky explains, markets are no longer just worried about oil prices, but also about the Russian Central Bank's apparent decision to bail out a suffering oil company by printing money:

Central Bank technocrats have been worried that the government would force them to print rubles for the direct funding of industries, primarily the military industrial complex and the state companies run by Putin friends. The Central Bank's obvious complicity in the Rosneft deal means the pressure is on, and the Central Bank is caving. It cannot prevent the funds loaned to corporations in special deals such as Rosneft's from destabilizing the currency and fuelling market panic. Besides, the Rosneft deal sends a clear signal to market players that some of them are more equal than the others. That is a sure way to foster distrust and send the ruble into a speculative tailspin regardless of what happens to the oil price.

Central Bank technocrats have been worried that the government would force them to print rubles for the direct funding of industries, primarily the military industrial complex and the state companies run by Putin friends. The Central Bank's obvious complicity in the Rosneft deal means the pressure is on, and the Central Bank is caving. It cannot prevent the funds loaned to corporations in special deals such as Rosneft's from destabilizing the currency and fuelling market panic. Besides, the Rosneft deal sends a clear signal to market players that some of them are more equal than the others. That is a sure way to foster distrust and send the ruble into a speculative tailspin regardless of what happens to the oil price.

The central bank tried to make up for this action by ratcheting interest rates up to 17 per cent. It hasn't worked; the ruble continued its plunge this morning. This tells us many things, all bad: that the central bank is not strong enough to resist President Vladimir Putin; that Putin is desperate enough to print money to cover Rosneft's problems; that capital controls may well be in the offing (so oligarchs and traders are eager to get their money out of the country); that Russia's financial situation is spinning out of control.

Central Bank technocrats have been worried that the government would force them to print rubles for the direct funding of industries, primarily the military industrial complex and the state companies run by President Vladimir Putin's friends. — Reuters picCentral Bank technocrats have been worried that the government would force them to print rubles for the direct funding of industries, primarily the military industrial complex and the state companies run by President Vladimir Putin's friends. — Reuters picIf that's not terrifying enough, consider that Russia is not the only country headed for problems. The Middle East is full of countries that need a high oil price to protect their economies. Take Iraq. Three years ago, I wrote:

But at least the oil is still flowing, and high prices help the government make up for shortcomings elsewhere. According to Frank Gunter, the economy needs to create about 250,000 net new jobs every year in order to absorb the young people coming of age. "A good year," he says, "is a year when oil prices are high, which allows the government to create those 250,000 jobs." And a bad year? That was 2006, when maintenance and capital investment were slashed. "You had Iraqi ministry employees going to work and sitting in the dark because there was no money for lightbulbs … but no one was fired, and no pensions were cut." Half of the labour force works for the national government, either directly or indirectly, and another 20 per cent or so is unemployed. "Iraqis believe that the only real job is a government job," Gunter says. It "pays more, has benefits, you can't be fired, and the work intensity is lower than in the private sector." Gunter estimates that if the price of oil falls below US$40 (RM139.96) a barrel, the government is in serious trouble: below that price, it will not have enough revenue to pay salaries and pensions, even if no services are provided at all.

But at least the oil is still flowing, and high prices help the government make up for shortcomings elsewhere. According to Frank Gunter, the economy needs to create about 250,000 net new jobs every year in order to absorb the young people coming of age. "A good year," he says, "is a year when oil prices are high, which allows the government to create those 250,000 jobs." And a bad year? That was 2006, when maintenance and capital investment were slashed. "You had Iraqi ministry employees going to work and sitting in the dark because there was no money for lightbulbs … but no one was fired, and no pensions were cut."

Half of the labour force works for the national government, either directly or indirectly, and another 20 per cent or so is unemployed. "Iraqis believe that the only real job is a government job," Gunter says. It "pays more, has benefits, you can't be fired, and the work intensity is lower than in the private sector." Gunter estimates that if the price of oil falls below US$40 a barrel, the government is in serious trouble: below that price, it will not have enough revenue to pay salaries and pensions, even if no services are provided at all.

Oil prices were hovering around US$110 a barrel back then. Now they're at US$55. And as a bond trader noted to me this morning, "Oil is lower, market concludes demand must be weak. Commodities guys look at equities ... and see weakness, bid oil lower. Equity guys see oil is lower ... hmm. Must be weak demand. Wash rinse repeat."

"If this rate of sell-off is sustained," said trader continued wryly, "oil will be free by mid-January."

Outside the Middle East, Venezuela is already well into a long economic crisis. The Hugo Chavez regime diverted investment funds from the state-owned oil company into social spending, which caused production to decline. That was a workable trade— off when prices were rising, but now that they're falling fast, so is Venezuela's economy, along with political stability.

Last week, I noted that this meant the risk of serious geopolitical repercussions. (The last time oil prices experienced this kind of run-up and decline, the Soviet Union fell.) In the modern global economy, it also means the risk of financial crisis, as problems in Russia and other oil-rich nations reverberate outward through our tightly interlaced networks of finance and trade. China is already fragile, the euro zone is struggling to hold everything together, and while US growth finally seems to be back on track, we will not be immune if the rest of the world is reeling.

Bershidsky suggests that capital controls may well be next for Russia, though the central bank governor denies that they are being considered. Whatever Russia does next, we'd better hope it works. Because if not, the rest of us may be using our newly cheaper gasoline to fuel up for a very bumpy ride. — Bloomberg

* To contact the author on this story: Megan McArdle at mmcardle3@bloomberg.net To contact the editor on this story: Brooke Sample at bsample1@bloomberg.net

** This is the personal opinion of the columnist.

Injured Malaysian skipper to possibly miss Thailand match in Suzuki Cup final

Posted: 16 Dec 2014 04:40 PM PST

The sea of spectators at the Shah Alam Stadium cheer on as Harimau Malaya face Vietnam in the AFF Suzuki Cup 2014 semi-final first leg match December 7, 2014. — Picture by Choo Choy MayThe sea of spectators at the Shah Alam Stadium cheer on as Harimau Malaya face Vietnam in the AFF Suzuki Cup 2014 semi-final first leg match December 7, 2014. — Picture by Choo Choy MayBANGKOK, Dec 17 — Malaysia skipper Shukor Adan is struggling to overcome a back problem and could miss the first leg of the AFF Suzuki Cup final against Thailand today.

The central defender picked up the injury in the closing stages of their surprise 4-2 win over Vietnam in the second leg of the semi-final tomorrow and has been undergoing treatment since.

"The knock is causing me some discomfort in training," Shukor was quoted as saying by Malaysian media in Bangkok yesterday.

"I thought it would be OK after a couple of days, but it is still bugging me.

"Missing games are part and parcel of being a footballer, but I am doing my best to ensure I get to start in the best possible condition."

Malaysia coach Dollah Salleh was wary of his side's chances of winning only a second title at the biennial Southeast Asian championships if the 35-year-old FELDA United back misses out.

"Our defence will lose his leadership qualities if he does not play. Furthermore, he organises our defence well during matches," the coach told reporters in Bangkok.

"We still have Muslim Ahmad and Afif Amirudin as options for Shukor in the centre-back position with Fadhli Shas."

Malaysia, 2010 winners, face an uphill task against three times champions Thailand who have been the standout side in the tournament so far and beat them 3-2 in group play.

The Malaysians host the second leg on Saturday in Kuala Lumpur. — Reuters