For Asia, the easy money may be coming to an end |
- For Asia, the easy money may be coming to an end
- Rio carnival: Despite all drama, controversy-hit samba school wins title… again (VIDEO)
- Post-Anwar apocalypse?
- Garcia makes US PGA Tour 2015 debut, hopes to build confidence in game
- Scientists: Sea lion strandings along California coast linked to warm Pacific weather
- Who? Me? Australia’s Abbott denies threatening Indonesia
| For Asia, the easy money may be coming to an end Posted: 18 Feb 2015 05:13 PM PST FEBRUARY 19 — Investors are still scratching their heads over Indonesia's surprise rate cut on Tuesday, when the central bank lowered the reference rate 25 basis points to 7.5 per cent. They're more likely to find an explanation in Frankfurt, Tokyo and Washington than in Jakarta. At 6.96 per cent, inflation is outpacing 5 per cent growth in Indonesia. Maybe Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo is worried about mounting deflation pressures around the globe. More likely, he's recognizing another dynamic at work: The boost that quantitative easing in advanced economies has delivered to emerging markets such as Indonesia may be coming to an end. I'm not referring here to the possibility of an eventual Federal Reserve interest-rate hike, or even the Bank of Japan's failure to expand its monetary base today. There's growing evidence that emerging markets are simply benefiting less and less from existing QE programmes. What's more, the US is starting to attract much of the liquidity that those smaller countries have grown dependent upon. "For 2015, the story may be of surprisingly strong asset performance in the US combined with a continued poor performance in the emerging world," says Adam Slater of Oxford Economics in London. The conventional wisdom still holds that developing-nation assets will gain from any additional stimulus from the euro zone and Japan. In a new report, however, Slater warns that the shrinking of the differential in gross domestic product between advanced and developing economies — it's now the smallest since 1999 — might well drive liquidity out of Asia. The growth gap in 2015 may be 1.2 percentage points, compared with about 4.5 percentage points between 2000 and 2014. In fact, excluding China, emerging-economy growth could be just 2.8 per cent this year, not that much more than that of the Group of Seven nations. Yield spreads also make riskier economies less appealing. While 10-year yields in, say, Indonesia are higher than in the US (7.07 per cent versus 2.12 per cent), real interest rates are becoming a turnoff. They're also either negligible or negative in Argentina, Mexico, South Africa, South Korea, Thailand and Turkey. Oxford's sample of 13 key emerging economies shows that real rates averaged 1 per cent in 2014, compared with roughly 3 per cent since 2000. Not surprisingly, portfolio investment flows have decreased. On a six-month average basis, flows into emerging markets were just US$11.6 billion in January, roughly equivalent to lows seen in 2013 when talk of crisis was in the air from Jakarta to New Delhi. The last two rounds of major QE injections — by the European Central Bank last month and the BOJ in October — resulted in only minor boosts to emerging markets relative to previous ones. Part of the problem is diminishing returns; too much liquidity chasing too few good investments. It also may be that, as the issuer of the reserve currency, the US has longer monetary coattails than Japan or Europe. Or are emerging markets losing their appeal? The answer to this question should worry officials in Asia and elsewhere. In a sense, the QE-fueled boom of recent years made things too easy for them. "It has funded abnormal growth globally, compared to the cycles of the previous century," says Marshall Mays, director of Emerging Alpha Advisors in Hong Kong. The US resurgence has its benefits, of course. As America's 2.5 per cent growth rate accelerates, US households will buy more Asian goods. But in the short run, Asia may run short on economic fuel. All that hot money, as I've written before, deadened the urgency for governments to upgrade their economies. As data series across industries soared, leaders focused more on ribbon-cutting ceremonies for new skyscrapers and factories, rubber-stamping foreign direct-investment deals and basking in headlines about rising share prices than in stabilizing economies and strengthening financial systems. Now, as capital flows recede and China slows, governments face pressure to loosen fiscal policies, redouble efforts to create jobs and bolster their appeal as investment destinations. This is hard work they should have done when times were good. They'd be smart not to wait any longer than they already have. — Bloomberg * This is the personal opinion of the writer or organisation and does not necessarily represent the views of Malay Mail Online.  |
| Rio carnival: Despite all drama, controversy-hit samba school wins title… again (VIDEO) Posted: 18 Feb 2015 05:00 PM PST RIO DE JANEIRO, Feb 19 — A Brazilian samba school shrugged off a controversy over alleged funding by an African strongman president and went on to claim its 13th win at the Rio Carnival championship yesterday. The Beija-Flor school, whose name means hummingbird, has denied media reports it was bankrolled to the tune of nearly US$5 million (RM18.073 million) by the president of Equatorial Guinea, Teodoro Obiang Nguema. Obiang Nguema and his son are facing allegations of money laundering and corruption. The leader holds an iron grip over tiny, oil-rich Equatorial Guinea and critics have labeled him a ruthless dictator. Hailing from the Rio suburb of Nilopolis, Beija-Flor scored 259.9 points to land its 13th title and see off rivals Salgueiro by 0.4 points. Known for its creativity, the Beija-Flor team will now bring the final curtain down on this year's carnival festivities at Saturday's Parade of Champions, comprising the top six schools. The Portela school came third, and last year's grand champions, Unidos da Tijuca, were in fourth place. The press service for Beija-Flor, whose theme was a "strong, joyful and colorful" Africa, told AFP they had merely received "cultural support and imported fabrics" from Equatorial Guinea, which is located on the Atlantic coast in central Africa.
After results were announced, Beija-Flor supporters burst into wild cheers at the Sambadrome in downtown Rio, where Sunday and Monday night the top 12 samba schools had battled it out for glory. "I am very emotional, very happy," Rayssa Oliveira, one of Beija-Flor's beauty queens, told Globo television. The jury considered various aspects of each team's performance in carefully choreographed parades at the Sambadrome in front of crowds of some 72,000 people. The jurors award points in categories ranging from the highly decorative school floats, the quality of their massed ranks of percussionists and how well the roughly 4,000-strong team move in sync with each other while singing their school song. The record of carnival celebrations dates back to 1723 — but the first samba school was not formed until 1928. — AFP |
| Posted: 18 Feb 2015 04:52 PM PST FEBRUARY 19 — "Pursue one great decisive aim with force and determination." ― Carl von Clausewitz. Anwar Ibrahim's current predicament is cruel, unusual and reprehensible, but if the leadership he left behind in the vast space of the Pakatan Rakyat universe — his own Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) in particular — do not come up with a step-by-step big-picture approach to the next general election, then he will remain in prison for the duration of his sentence. An unfathomable limbo and perhaps the death knell for the Opposition pact in its present shape. Neither Pakatan nor I desire that, but the first week since his imprisonment there has been scant agenda setting by the coalition or its leaders. If Anwar were sitting at this metaphoric stadium where his life's decided by this football match, he'd not look overly enthused. A case of too many hopeful long balls into the box with only five-foot tall forwards expected to head-in a result. Let's examine the box-to-box action so far. There was a lukewarm gathering in the city, a shadow of the Reformasi rallies in 1998 and more importantly weak by the standard of contemporaries like BERSIH. Other than that, on the plate are intimations another daughter would be the standard bearer for the free-Anwar movement and professions — or rather confessions — of high level political subterfuges. Meanwhile, the hired-gun prosecutor Shafee Abdullah with "ultra-progressive" minister cum Youth leader cum truth paragon Khairy Jamaluddin are out on the road to inform an allegedly ill-informed electorate of the facts regarding the trial. Where Kansas ends and Twilight Zone meets Dr Strangelove is no more a space-time concept in Malaysia. However, incumbency has its absolute advantages and Pakatan appears to be dancing to the pied piper's tune. Time to skip the jitterbug and aim true at what will free Anwar, the 14th General Election. Permatang Pauh and Pakatan leadership Anwar's Permatang Pauh seat and Pakatan leadership are intertwined, but for the sake of clarity let's dissect one and then the other. So dispensing with the niceties, I'm not a happy scout with the roundabout way of introducing Nurul Nuha Anwar as the clear as day candidate for the Permatang Pauh parliamentary constituency. Barisan Nasional's opaque manner of running the country which irks an increasingly informed and educated electorate, and the presentation of Nurul Nuha as the face of the campaign to free-Anwar but not expound on her candidacy for the seat adds mystery to a situation that needs less if any late plot-twisters. The party has been assailed by BN attacks unceasingly for 17 years on one point, that there is brazen nepotism. It rattles independents, and distracts younger voters from PKR's value proposition. The family's anointment nullifies any other effort to ask, what is in the best interest of the Permatang Pauh PKR support base. It adds to the veracity that one family's interest outweighs all other considerations in the party. It helps not that Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail allows this without considering the broader responsibility of party president to the membership. Considering the sensitivities of a party present in 14 states — one more than Umno — any measures to answer the Permatang Pauh question has to be layered and in through broader party consensus. It has to be done also to ensure that other PKR cadres have a chance to be considered with a chance of success. Umno is already looking from within the constituency and while the results of the by-election is more straightforward if the name "Anwar" appears in the voting slip, it would have long-term effects on the party's national cohesion. I have nothing against Nuha, but if she wants less antagonism from the rank and file, and colleagues in Parliament then allowing herself to be processed just like any other candidate placates internal concerns. Especially since sister Nurul Izzah Anwar is the co-director of the party's election machinery and has a large say in candidate selection. More on this as the weeks go on, but as a commoner may I offer this insight? Having a new, young and local-raised candidate is not the worst thing for Malaysian politics. He or she might have one helluva fight in the by-election, but the symbolism for GE-14 would be massive. Then the second complication. I say complication because PAS and DAP are non-starters to lead Pakatan. DAP won't want it, and PAS would but then DAP won't stand for it. However, don't be misguided, even if PAS or DAP bosses don't helm Pakatan does not mean there will be a pecking order inside the coalition. The leader of the coalition's key task is to appear larger than life and to perpetually hold the ideological splinter between PAS and DAP to a minimum. By accident or design, this is how the position has manifested itself, and anyone in PKR assuming this position will be drained very quickly. And the new guy's immediate challenge would be the Sarawak state election, which might be later this year to capitalise on the situation. #KitaLawan or Ra Ra Rasputin The low-turnout at the free-Anwar event last weekend is a reminder to politicians. People like to be asked. The expectation that people will just show up because of a call for action only compounds the accusations of being out of touch with the masses. Firstly, using the official hashtag #KitaLawan (We will fight) is confrontational, hugely partisan and a turnoff to independents. Hashtag aside, there has been learning from the past — need a build-up and ending line spelt out. People need to know what they are achieving. Humans commit when there is a goal. They recommit when previous commitments have been met with achievements, or at least outcomes that suggest to them they are empowered in the said issue. Sad but true, people get tired. If I have to say it, I apologise for being patronising but maybe it is deserved: People like to be led through consensus and not herded through streets on demand like livestock. You want support, organise it. Please Mr Obama, bring me a dream All individuals are welcome to sign any petition to the US president and ask others to join in. But I'd ask Pakatan politicians and political operatives to hesitate, for the ramifications are significant. US foreign policy is predicated on self-interest. Malaysia means the Straits of Malacca, Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA), regional security in the Spratlys, and the larger Chinese expansion to ASEAN and even to the Indian Ocean via Myanmar. Those come first. Plus, it is a net benefit dealing with a Malaysian regime sustaining stability (which a euphemism for pliant administration, weak trade union and pro-American business policies). But the second part is dangerous for Opposition politicians. By openly supporting a petition to the US government rather than relying on their own strengths to affect change they emasculate themselves in the eye of fence sitters. We the people Pakatan has to tell the people what is the plan. If getting six persons to a Chinese New Year dinner can be challenging, getting 15 million Malaysian voters to message in the two years to the general elections has all levels of challenges with minefields abound. There has to be a narrative, one that can be repeated. Like: "Pakatan seeks to give Malaysians a better future and will do so when it wins the next general election. A better Malaysia includes judicial integrity and fair process, which would free Anwar Ibrahim from his current incarceration. The leader of opposition is one of the many victims of a system gone wrong. He is a visible victim, a major victim, but Pakatan is equally committed to all Malaysians, whose lives generally are below what would be expected of a well-endowed country with amazing and talented people. We have many weaknesses and we are trying hard to overcome them. We ask the people to work with us to turn this country to a nation every Malaysian can be equally proud of." Right now, even for members of PAS, DAP and PKR there is a purple haze of confusion. The path to freeing Anwar is no closer if all of the leaders stumble about in the mist. A time for Malaysian leadership. Who's up for it? * This is the personal opinion of the columnist and does not necessarily represent the views of Malay Mail Online. |
| Garcia makes US PGA Tour 2015 debut, hopes to build confidence in game Posted: 18 Feb 2015 04:51 PM PST
The 35-year-old veteran is still looking for his first major tile after 65 tries, although he shared second in last year's British Open ― his fourth runner-up effort in a major ― and is ranked seventh in the world. But Garcia's only win on US soil since the 2008 Players Championship was in 2012 at Greensboro, North Carolina, in the week between the PGA Championship and the start of the US PGA Tour playoffs. "I want to try to achieve as many things as possible," Garcia said. "Some of them I'm sure I'll be able to and some I probably won't. But at the end of the day, I think if I give it everything I have... I can't really ask myself for anything else." Garcia was a three-time runner-up and twice finished third last season on the US tour. This year, he missed the cut at Dubai and shared 46th in defending his crown at Qatar before taking three weeks off at home. Now he begins a three-week US run at the Northern Trust Open before returning to Europe and then coming back for the Houston Open and the Masters in April. "Excited about it," Garcia said. "We'll see what we are able to do. Probably not feeling at my best level at the moment. "The last couple of weeks, practice was OK but not amazing. Hopefully I can get some confidence as the tournaments go on and start to find my groove and my game." Garcia has struggled to find consistency but cannot point to a simple problem with his game. "I guess it's just a matter of kind of building up a little bit of confidence and kind of getting into the rhythm and start doing good things," Garcia said. "My long game, it has been OK, but not to the standard that I usually have it. Short game, it's been a little bit shakier than it has been in the past three or four years." Garcia's best showing in eight prior starts in the event was a share of fourth, but he likes the Riviera layout. "I really love the golf course," Garcia said. "When it plays firm, it's the kind of golf course that is asking you to hit the proper shots." Garcia will play the first two rounds alongside two Americans, 21-year-old Justin Spieth and 55-year-old Fred Couples. Defending champion Bubba Watson, who followed his Riviera crown last year with his second Masters title, will play in a US trio alongside Dustin Johnson, who was second by two strokes to Watson last year, and Bill Haas, who won last month's Humana Challenge. ― AFP |
| Scientists: Sea lion strandings along California coast linked to warm Pacific weather Posted: 18 Feb 2015 04:45 PM PST
Some 940 stranded sea lions, mostly pups, have been treated by marine mammal centres in California so far this year, according to Justin Viezbicke, West Coast Stranding Coordinator for the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. That is well above the 240 strandings typically seen through April, and scientists suspect the emaciated pups are prematurely leaving Southern California sea lion rookeries to seek food on their own after their mothers failed to return swiftly from hunting trips to nurse. "These little pups, so desperate and so thin, are leaving the rookeries long before they're capable of hunting effectively," said Shawn Johnson, director of veterinary science at the Marine Mammal Center in Sausalito, which has treated 220 stranded animals. "It's alarming because we haven't seen this number of stranded pups this early in 40 years." The strandings are unusual because the pups, born last June, aren't supposed to be completely weaned until May. Satellite data show sea lion mothers are foraging in traditional hunting grounds, but likely spending longer periods away, said Sharon Melin, a biologist with NOAA's National Marine Mammal Laboratory in Seattle. Fish populations are likely being disrupted by a layer of ocean water, some 100 metres (330 feet) deep, that is 2 to 5 degrees warmer than usual this time of year along the Pacific Coast from Baja to Alaska's Aleutian Islands, said NOAA climatologist Nate Mantua. The change was caused by a weather pattern involving weak northern and strong southern winds that are creating warmer-than-normal conditions. It's unclear how many stranded animals will die among the 300,000-strong sea lion population. In 2013, some 70 per cent of nursing pups perished in what NOAA declared an "unusual mortality event" linked to strandings. Melin said pups checked on San Miquel Island this month were 44 per cent below average weight at seven months old, marking the lowest growth rate since scientists began recording such measurements in the 1990s. Most of the stranded pups have been recovered in Southern California, but the pups also swim or are carried further north, and may eventually turn up in Washington state and Oregon, according to Johnson. ― Reuters |
| Who? Me? Australia’s Abbott denies threatening Indonesia Posted: 18 Feb 2015 04:41 PM PST
As tensions mount in the bid to save Andrew Chan and Myuran Sukumaran, Abbott yesterday said Jakarta should remember the significant monetary aid Canberra supplied in the aftermath of the devastating 2004 tsunami. He urged Indonesia to reciprocate in Australia's time of need, but the comments were coolly received in Jakarta with the foreign ministry warning that "threats are not part of diplomatic language". "Yesterday, I was referring to the obvious strength of the relationship between Indonesia and Australia and what we have done for Indonesia in the past," Abbott said when pressed on whether his comments were meant as a threat. "And yes, Indonesia has done a lot for us as well because that's what friends do for each other. "It was important that I point out the strength and the depth of the relationship and that's exactly what I was doing." Relations between the neighbours are only just recovering from a damaging rift in 2014 over spying revelations and people-smuggling. Chan, 31, and Sukumaran, 33, ringleaders of the so-called Bali Nine heroin trafficking group, are set to be among the next set of prisoners to face the firing squad in Indonesia. They were given a glimmer of hope this week when their transfer to the island prison where they are due to be shot was postponed. Despite this, Indonesia insisted the execution of the men — who are on death row along with citizens from France, Ghana, Brazil and Nigeria — would go ahead, having lost their appeals for presidential clemency. Legal and diplomatic efforts to save the Australians have escalated in recent weeks and Fairfax Media today claimed Indonesian President Joko Widodo did not view all the relevant documentation when he decided not to spare them. Citing a source familiar with events, it said due to the chaotic handover to his office from his predecessor Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono last year, Widodo had little more than the names of those on death row and did not review each case individually. "There was just a few pieces of papers listing names of people on death row. No documents attached to the lists," claimed the source. Lawyers for Chan and Sukumaran have a court date next Tuesday to examine a last-ditch claim that Widodo did not follow the rules in rejecting their clemency bids. Abbott said it was in Indonesia's best interests to let them live. "Your best interests will be served and your best values will be realised by not going ahead with these executions," he said. "Because right now they are reformed, they are rehabilitated and they are helping to fight the drug threat in Indonesia inside Indonesia's prison system." — AFP |
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